simulating g f d l predicted climate change impacts on rice cropping in iran

نویسندگان

a. soltani

e. zeinali

s. galeshi

n. niari

چکیده

projected global climate change may have a major influence on crop yield. the likely effects of climate change caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on rice yield in iran were evaluated using a mechanistic growth model for rice, gsac-rice, running under a climate change scenario predicted for a doubled-co2 (2xco2) atmosphere by the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (gfdl) general circulation model (gcm). simulations were run for two locations with contrasting climates, one in the north (rasht) and one in the south (ahwaz) of iran. gfdl predicted that as a result of doubling co2 , temperature increases by 4.5 and 4.6 0c during the rice growing season in rasht and ahwaz, respectively. changes in solar radiation are minor, but rainfall during the rice growing season decreases by 38.8% (102 mm) for rasht and 68.2% (5.8 mm) for ahwaz. it was predicted that doubling [co2] alone increased rice yield by 30%, but that yield decreases by 3.7 and 11.6% for each degree centigrade rise in temperature in rasht and ahwaz, respectively. as a result of the combined effect of both doubling [co2] and the climate change accompanying it (predicted with gfdl), 8% greater rice could be produced in rasht, but irrigation needs would be increased dramatically by 57%. in ahwaz (the south of iran), rice production could be halved and might not even remain a viable option unless plant breeders are able to produce more heat tolerant rice cultivars. it was concluded that rice production in the north and south of the country would change dramatically.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

simulating climate change impacts on production of chickpea in zanjan province

climate change which is derived by increase of atmospheric co2 concentration and other greenhouse gases could have considerable effects on productivity of crops in the future. climate change impacts on chickpea yield were investigated and yield maps of dryland areas of zanjan province were provided. investigated scenarios were control scenario, in which simulated current situation, and climate ...

متن کامل

Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran

We simulate the effect of climate change on water requirements of cold seasonwheat in various climatic zones of Iran. The research considers both observedclimate (temperature and precipitation) changes during recent decades (1960-2009)based on instrumental records and projected future changes to 2100 based on theMAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 compound model. 20 General Circulation models are usedbased on a...

متن کامل

Climate change impacts on spatial-temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in Iran

Global warming due to greenhouse effect is expected to cause major changes in climate of some regions. The change of climate is likely to have a profound effect on hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET, as the major component of hydrological cycle, will affect crop water requirement and future planning and management of water resources. This study was conducted to investigate climate chang...

متن کامل

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study...

متن کامل

Impacts of Climate Change on

Eliasson, P.E. 2007. Impacts of climate change on carbon and nitrogen cycles in boreal forest ecosystems. Doctor’s dissertation. ISSN: 1652-6880, ISBN: 978-91-576-7388-6 It is well known that soil carbon stocks decrease considerably in response to soil warming, but experimental data have shown that the loss of carbon declines within decades in apparent acclimation. An explanation to such findin...

متن کامل

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید


عنوان ژورنال:
journal of agricultural science and technology

ناشر: tarbiat modares university

ISSN 1680-7073

دوره 3

شماره Number 2 2010

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023